The results have been coming in throughout the night, and our live charts and maps are continually updating to show both the progress and challenges of each race.
It seemed likely that the Democrats would lose the Senate as well as the House when we began. It looks like they might lose neither the Senate nor the House.
According to NBC News, the Republicans have won 219 House seats, compared to 216 for the Democrats. This means that they will still hold control of the House but with less authority than some pollsters had predicted.
This estimate also includes a margin of error. It means that both parties could still win.
After the Democrats won Pennsylvania’s Senate seat, the race for the remaining seats is still very much in balance. There are only a few states that have yet to declare.
The Republicans have made some notable gains in certain seats. Jen Kiggans defeated Elaine Luria, a January 6 investigator in Virginia’s battleground district 2nd.
The redistricting since 2020 has muddy the waters. Many of the seats that are listed as “gains” are either new districts or represent geographies almost unrecognisable from those they replace.
Although these gains are beneficial to both parties, they don’t necessarily reflect a shift in Americans’ political preferences, but rather the adjustment of America’s political map.
What’s the House of Representatives? How are seats allocated?
The map shown above appears to be well-soaked in Republican red. However, this too can be misleading.
Although each seat has the same population, some seats are smaller geographically. This is usually found in urban areas with a greater population density.
This map shows every district at the same size as the others, which gives a better idea of the power balance across the country.
The race to the Senate
As expected, the Senate’s balance of power was more delicate than that of the House. With only five seats remaining to declare, we are not far from figuring out who will win.
Although the Democrats have made a significant gain in Pennsylvania, they are still fighting tight defenses in Nevada or Georgia that could allow them to turn the Senate in their favor. To take control, they only had to win one election.
The Democrat challenge in Wisconsin is also closer than expected, a state Mr Biden won in 2020.
This is how the Senate’s balance will look up to 2024, including the seats that weren’t up this year.
Why don’t all states have elections?
What does this all mean for Donald Trump?
Although he has not yet announced his intention to run again for office, he is still the favorite to win in 2024.
He is not as well-known on social media, but he hasn’t stopped being political. Over the course of the campaign for these midterm elections he has issued endorsements to 174 of the 430 Republican candidates in the House, and tens more for would-be Republican Senators, Governors and Secretaries-of-State.
Initial results indicate that this may have backfired. Trump-backed Republican House candidates have performed worse than those who were not.
Comparatively to 2020, the Republican vote share in areas backed by Trump has increased by 1.8 percent.
This is far less than the 6.9% percentage point increase in areas without a Republican candidate.
These endorsements, which were prized in Republican primaries in recent months, seem to have been less effective in winning over Democrats or independent voters.
This is evident in Democrat-held areas, but Trump-endorsed candidates in Republican areas have done relatively well.
This analysis is based upon early results from less than half the countries. It may not reflect the final outcome, but it will give you a good idea of where things stand.
What does the election mean for America?
After the 2020 election, it was the first time that both the chambers of Congress as well as the presidency were in Democratic hands since Barack Obama’s first term.
If all three parties are represented, it is easier for the president and party to pass their policies.
Joe Biden’s Democrats will lose control of either one or both chambers and they will be unable to set the agenda for the major issues that divide the country. This includes things like abortion, climate change, gun control, and immigration.
The president’s party loses seats in midterm elections on average 28 times. However, Democrats will be trying to reverse that trend. George W Bush lost his seat last year in 2002, one year after 9/11.
However, President Biden’s approval ratings are at an historic low. This makes it seem unlikely.
To win the House of Representatives, the Republicans would need to gain five seats based on the 2020 results. The Senate needs one.
Credits:
Reporters – Daniel Dunford and Ben van der Merwe
Lead data engineer – Przemyslaw Pluta
