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What experts are saying about the chance of a heatwave in the UK this summer

The chance of a summer heatwave in the UK is “below average”, meteorologists have said. 

As southern Europe swelters in temperatures of up to 45C (113F), the Met Office said there is no sign of the Cerberus heatwave arriving in the UK.

But the Met Office’s Rachel Ayers said this week’s unsettled conditions will “settle down” next week.

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The UK is set to experience temperatures close to average or slightly below for July, she said.

See the weather forecast for your area

Heading into August, temperatures will heat up slightly but still could be lower than average.

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Ms Ayers said there is a “below average” chance of it being warm or hot.

Sky News’s weather team also said there is “no sign of any heatwave for the UK in the next week or two”.

Sky producer Joanna Robinson said: “At the moment, it looks like temperatures are likely to be close to average for August, with the chance of very warm or hot conditions lower than average.

“But there’s time for that to change.”

A man holds an umbrella as he and other tourists enter the ancient Acropolis hill during a heatwave in Athens

Meanwhile, Spain, Italy, Greece, Turkey and north Africa have seen temperatures soar today with another day of sweltering heat expected on Friday.

Children play in a water fountain during a heatwave, near the walls of Jerusalem's Old City July 13, 2023. REUTERS/Ilan Rosenberg
Children play in a water fountain during a heatwave, near the walls of Jerusalem’s Old City

The current highest temperature predictions are 42C in Seville, 40C in the Turkish city of Bodrum and 38C in Athens.

Inland Spain is set to see temperatures of up to 43C in the next few days, while places like Foggia in eastern Italy could reach 44C by the middle of next week.

Read more:
How hot is too hot for the human body to function?
European data shows land temperatures are scorching – and it’s about to get much worse
Why is Europe being hit by such high temperatures and when will it end?

In north Africa, temperatures could hit 50C – Tunisia has already endured record-breaking temperatures of up to 49C.

Europe’s highest-ever recorded temperature was 48.8C (119.8F) in Syracuse, Sicily, in August 2021.

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) says the Cerberus heatwave will last for around two weeks.

Earth experienced its hottest week on record at the start of July – following the hottest-ever June – according to the WMO.

A woman cools off as she sits in the sea during a heatwave across Italy, in Naples, Italy July 10, 2023. REUTERS/Ciro De Luca TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY
A woman cools off as she sits in the sea in Naples

Previous studies have linked heat in Europe with climate change.

A new study in recent days revealed more than 61,000 people died in Europe last summer as a result of extreme heat.


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