World Meteorological Organisation has warned that the global temperature will break a critical temperature limit within the next five year.
It is estimated that 66% of the time, a global temperature average 1.5C will be exceeded at least once before 2027. This would be a first in human history.
Nearly all countries have committed themselves to limiting global warming to 1.5C or less above pre-industrial levels.
The nations did this at the COP21 Climate Conference when they signed the historic Paris Climate Agreement, to make the harmful impacts of climate changes, such as flooding, rising sea levels, and droughts more manageable.
Scientists stress that, while it is alarming to see the world surpass 1.5C, this does not mean we have permanently crossed the threshold.
It would take many more global temperatures to surpass 1.5C before climate warming can be permanently attributed to this level.
It is an indication that the world is moving closer and that mankind’s attempts to curb climate change caused by fossil fuels have been too slow and insufficient.
Dr Leon Hermanson, of the Met Office Hadley Centre and one of the experts that led the report, stated: “We never exceeded 1.5C. The current record is 1,28C.
It’s likely that we’ll exceed this, and we may even reach 1.5C. This is more likely than not.
Doug Parr is the Chief Scientist of Greenpeace UK. He said, “This report should be a rallying call to intensify efforts worldwide to combat climate change.”
He said that every “tenth degree” of global warming we avoid will reduce the likelihood of extreme weather around the world, and the human costs associated with it.
Only 32% of the time will the average five-year temperature exceed 1.5C.
The global temperature has already risen by at least 1.1C.
WMO said that there was a 98% probability of breaking the record for the hottest year ever recorded during this time.
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Dr Hermanson stated that the record is likely to be a combination between greenhouse gases and an naturally occurring weather event called El Nino. This is a warming of the eastern Pacific, which affects global temperatures and rainfall.
WMO stated that La Nina, its opposite, has been cooling the atmosphere for most of the past three years. However, this has now stopped.
El Nino usually raises the global temperature in the first year following its emergence. Scientists expect temperatures to increase in 2024.
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WMO General Secretary Professor Petteri Táalas stated: “A warming El Nino will develop in the next few months, and this combined with human-induced global climate change will push temperatures to uncharted levels.
This will have far-reaching consequences for health, water management, and the environment. “We need to prepare.”
IPCC, the United Nations’ climate science body, has stated that every increment of warming causes more damage to humans and wildlife. It’s not at a cliff’s edge but rather a threshold more desirable.
Climate Action Tracker, a leading climate group, says that current plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are putting the world on track for a warming of around 2.4C by the end this century.
The Climate Show with Tom Heap airs on Sky News on Saturdays and Sundays at 3pm and 7:30pm, as well as on Sky News’ website, app and Twitter.
This show explores the effects of global warming on our landscape, and offers solutions.
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