Telegram and Twitter have circulated top secret documents that detail the readiness of Ukraine’s forces, as well as detailed planning information about equipment inflow, weather and ammunition expenditure.
Status of the Conflict as of 1 Mar” appears to be a daily briefing document with a classification higher than top secret, giving clues to the sources of the information within it, and a caveat of “NOFORN,” which means No Foreign Dissemination, so for US eyes only.
Some pages are not classified and were created for Ukraine.
Watch the Ukraine war live: Kyiv reacts to ‘leaked” plans
This information could prove useful to Russia, as it contains two important details about any Ukrainian counteroffensive.
The first question is: When will the Ukrainian forces be ready for combat?
This document clearly indicates when it would be. It doesn’t mention the second factor, or the where. This is a secret within the Ukrainian military planning staff.
There are multiple versions of the document that circulate, which suggests disinformation.
This information appears to focus on Russian casualty statistics. The doctored document suggests that the Russians have lost only 17,500 personnel. However, British Military Intelligence estimates that between 40-60,000 Russians have been killed. Meanwhile, the Ukrainians claim they have killed more than 170,000 Russian military personnel. The doctored version raises the number of Ukrainians killed.
Access to any document, particularly those containing classifications, should be carefully controlled.
This is a rare leak.
More information about Ukraine:
Macron appeals for China’s Xi, to ‘bring Russia home to its senses’ in response to the invasion of Ukraine
Ukraine remains strong, but its strength will be tested as more and more people die in war.
The boy that cried wolf – Should Putin’s nuclear threat to be believed?
Sun Tzu, a 6th-century Chinese philosopher and general, wrote in The Art of War: “All warfare and deception are warfare.”
Operation Mincemeat was a secret operation by the Allies during the Second World War to obtain the most detailed plans for the invasions of southern Europe to Hitler’s desk. It convinced him that any invasion would be through Sardinia and Greece, not Sicily. The rest is history.
If the documents are authentic, this will be a serious embarrassment to the US. A rapid counter-intelligence operation is in place.
There are so many control mechanisms in place that ensure there is no chance of it leaking.
It is useful in itself, and can give the Russians insight into the Ukrainians’ intentions, but it cannot be used if they have the resources to defend against an attack by the Ukrainians.
They are already struggling and I don’t think they have the ability to make a difference.
The Ukrainians kept their activities around Kharkiv and Kherson secret last year. I’m certain that the upcoming counterattack by Ukraine will have been carefully planned and executed.
The Ukrainians will decide the exact location and timing of the event, and this leak won’t change that.