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World politics and power – the dates and trends that will help shape 2023 | Adam Boulton

It is rare to predict the major events that will define a year or a decade.

Nobody could have foreseen the attacks on the US in 9/11 2001, which eventually overwhelmed the leaderships of Tony Blair or George W Bush.

Most experts believed that Russia would launch the vicious attack against Ukraine a year ago. It launched it on 24 February.

Neither did the markets nor finance ministers anticipate the cost-of-living crisis that the attack would cause and which would impact us all.


It does not mean that it is unnecessary to look ahead to 2023.

It is possible to identify trends and dates that will shape the next twelve months.

Because their economies are suffering high inflation, prices and interest rates, it will be a relief for the G7 political leaders that there are no major, potentially end-of-government elections in France, Germany Germany, Japan, Canada or the USA in 2023.

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2024 is the date for the next reckoning between the voters of the UK and the US.

Next year, both the main opposition and the governing parties will be busy trying to get into the best position possible for victory.

Image: Donald Trump

January 2024 will mark the official start of the long-running race for the White House.

This means that in 2020, 2023 will decide who the nominees will be and whether Joe Biden or Donald Trump will be the candidates.

Both men indicated they would stand, even though Trump would have been 82 by the end of his second term and Biden would be 86.

To be eligible for Mr Trump’s candidacy, Mr Biden must be present.

He is the most well-placed Democrat to defeat Donald Trump again in surveys, but he would lose to nearly any Republican.

However, Mr Trump’s legal problems are growing.

Additional criminal charges could be brought against him for the 6 January 2021 rebellion. These fraud prosecutions in New York City and the FBI investigation into illegally removing documents from the White House could also be brought against him.

As Donald Trump’s chances of winning re-election diminish, Republicans appear to be moving towards an open selection system. Ron DeSantis and Mike Pompeo, Nikki Haley, Mike Pence, and Mike Pence are some of those who can expect to declare their goals in the next few months.

In the hope of a new candidate who appears like a winner, Mr Biden would be subject to intense Democratic pressure to resign.

Republicans hold a narrow control of the new 118th Congress and plan to investigate the president and his son Hunter Biden.

However, bitter internal divisions could lead to the disintegration of either the Republicans or Democrats.

Rishi Sunak should feel secure in his job in the UK after three Conservative prime minsters in one year. However, that is not how the Conservative Party has been doing things in recent years.

In opinion polls, the Conservatives start the year behind Labour by astonishing 25 points.

A move to remove the prime minister is possible if the Tories fail in the local elections of 4 May.

Four years ago, Theresa May was forced out by a swing against Labour in the national equivalent vote share contests.

Boris Johnson signalled his willingness to assume the helm of the wings in 2019, as he did in 2019.

The elections for Northern Ireland councillors were moved two weeks later. Otherwise, extensive vote counting would have taken place on Coronation Day.

Image Stormont

Stormont’s gridlocked assembly may have seen a new set of elections.

The deadline for cross-community power-sharing to be resumed has been set by the Westminster government on 19 January

It is not likely that it will, as the DUP demands the end of the EU-Norwegian trade agreement.

International attention will be focused on the handling of the difficult standoff between the UK & the EU by Mr Sunak’s government in the weeks leading up to April 25th, the 25th anniversary the Good Friday Agreement.

Biden loves to celebrate his Irish heritage and has recently appointed Joseph Kennedy III to be a special envoy for Northern Ireland.

While he has greeted President Emmanuel Macron of France during a state visit, Prime Minister Sunak has yet not visited the White House.

On 22 January, France and Germany will celebrate European Union solidarity. This is when they mark the 60th anniversary their Elysee Treaty. It formally unites the axis that has driven the EU since then.

At the beginning of the year, the European project will be further developed when Croatia, a recent EU member, becomes a part of the eurozone currency area and the Schengen free of movement area.

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Tensions between Serbia and Kosovo are escalating elsewhere in the Balkans.

Both Turkey and Greece will hold elections this summer.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the increasingly autocratic Prime Minster, is trying to prolong his 20-year tenure against a resurgent Opposition.

Learn more from Adam Boulton

There are still reasons to smile and gleam of hope as 2022 comes to an end

In the midst of the economic crisis, there is cold comfort for the homeless during Christmas.

Kyriakos Mitchellsotakis, however, is still in power and has a diminished level of control in parliament.

He could still dramatically increase his popularity by securing Athens’ return of the Elgin Marbles.

The British Museum is working under the leadership of George Osborne to make a deal. This would cause Mr Sunak to have a headache as full restitution would require a legislative act.

Image: Lula de Silva

Lula da Silva, Brazil’s next president, will be inaugurated on January 1. The left-leaning politician has promised to reverse the environmentally harmful policies of his predecessor Jair Bolsonaro.

While there have been many presidents and prime ministers, the UK has not seen a change of head of state or coronation in over 70 years.

The crowning ceremony on 6 May will be celebrated with a double bank holiday.

Image: Harry and Meghan. Pic: AP

King Charles has plans for a one-hour “slimmed down” ceremony.

It is unknown if the Duke and Duchess will be there.

Prince Harry will be able to work through his grievances with the publication of Spare ,early 2023.

Entertainment highlights for 2023 include the FIFA Women’s World Cup, Australia and New Zealand in July.

This tournament will consolidate the enormous interest in women’s soccer, and there are high hopes for England.

Sir Keir Starmer, a soccer fan, will cheer them on, even though he and Labour Party are trying to define “a woman” in the wake of the trans rights controversy.

Image: Eurovision will be held in Liverpool. Pic: AP

Liverpool has taken over as host of the Eurovision Song Contest in Mai in lieu of this year’s winner, war-torn Ukraine.

It doesn’t matter what stage the conflict is at, it will always be bittersweet.

The G7’s annual meeting will be a powerful reminder of the horrors and consequences of war.

Hiroshima is the location where the Japanese host the summit. This is the same city that the first atomic bomb fell in 1945.

While we cannot predict the shocks that will define the future, moving forward in the new year requires us to reflect on the lessons learned from the past.


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